Alaco

22.09.2016 | Merkel is down, but not out

While recent electoral setbacks have hurt Angela Merkel, they do not diminish her chances of re-election.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has been having a torrid time at the polls.  At the weekend, Berlin state elections saw her centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) ousted from its ruling coalition with the centre-left Social Democrats – a defeat blamed on Merkel’s stewardship of the party, in particular her refugee policy.  The Berlin debacle came just two weeks after the CDU’s poor performance in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election, in which the party’s share of the local vote also dropped significantly.  The blows have prompted Merkel critics to question whether she is the right person to lead the party or, indeed, the country.  But, however worrying her party’s recent results at the ballot box, Merkel seems unlikely to lose her hold on the chancellery in next September’s national elections – unless she decides not to run.

The CDU’s electoral defeats have come amid a surge in support for the populist Alternative für Deutschland party (AfD).  The latter’s success is largely attributed to its opposition to the influx of immigrant from Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq and other conflict-ridden countries.  While the AfD has been drawing voters from all the established parties, most of its support has come from those who have never voted before.  So, significantly, the CDU is not seeing its supporters switch to its main rivals, only to the far-right.  In fact, the CDU retains a ten point lead in the opinion polls over the next-biggest party, the Social Democrats; and while Merkel’s personal approval ratings have declined, she remains the most popular head of any party. 

The most fervent critics of Merkel, besides the AfD, are to be found within her own party.  All other parties agree in principle with her welcoming stance towards the refugees – their criticism focuses on style rather than substance.  Segments of the CDU, and its sister party, the Christian Social Union of Bavaria, have tried to push for a more restrictive immigration policy.  But there is no one else within the CDU capable of challenging her.  The only other politician in the party enjoying comparable popularity is Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble, but his age – 75 at next election – and poor health, mean that he is unlikely to throw his hat into the ring.  So rather than threaten to replace Merkel, critics have put pressure on her to amend her policies.  Since the Berlin election, she has voiced regret over her handling of the migrant crisis.  It is likely that she will announce policy changes to curb immigration in the coming weeks, quelling the detractors within her party and very likely securing their backing in the 2017 leadership contest.

While the AfD has been a thorn in Merkel’s side, the party is far from getting enough support to form a government on its own, and no party is prepared to become its coalition partner.  But as a powerful opposition party, the AfD forces other parties to seek broader coalitions in order to govern.  So the most probable outcome of Germany’s 2017 national elections will be a continuation of the current grand coalition between the CDU and the Social Democrats, albeit with a much slimmer majority than the present one.  Notwithstanding the concerns over the rise of the AfD, a more robust opposition will be more effective at holding a future Merkel government to account. 

While the refugee debate currently appears to be swaying German voters’ opinion of Merkel, it is likely to lose its traction by this time next year.  The refugee influx has declined dramatically since its 2015 peak and the local administrations handling the newcomers are no longer in crisis mode.  Officials are adopting a more strategic approach to the challenges posed by the migrants.  Soon tackling problems such as their integration into the labour market could become ordinary issues on the political agenda.

Over the course of her decade in office, Merkel has largely delegated the business of day-to-day domestic politics to her cabinet, allowing her to burnish her reputation as a cool-headed, professional manager of international crises.  In the past, her popularity has peaked when she has emerged from Brussels offices in the dead of night after preventing the meltdown of European banks, defusing the Greek debt crisis, or brokering deals between Ukraine and Russia. Her record as an international firefighter bolsters her electoral prospects and voters will be reminded of her qualities in what are expected to be tough Brexit negotiations.  But Germany’s “Krisenkanzlerin” (crisis chancellor) will be hoping that she doesn’t have to deal with a domestic emergency. For barring a major migrant-linked terrorist outrage, she appears to be on course for a fourth term.