20.01.2016 | Turkey’s energy needs and isolation are key to rapprochement with Israel

After years of uneasy relations, Turkey and Israel appear to be inching towards restoring ties. The two countries are said to have agreed a draft reconciliation deal, with Ankara’s desire to end its dependence on Russian gas and regional isolation providing much of the impetus for the detente.

Relations between Israel and Turkey soured in late spring of 2010, after Israeli commandos stormed a Turkish aid ship, the Mavi Marmara, attempting to break the Israeli blockade of the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip.  Ten Turkish activists were killed in the raid, sparking outrage in Turkey.  The United States has long called on both sides to reconcile and in 2013 Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu formally apologised for the Marmara incident.

The gesture reportedly led to secret talks between Turkey and Israel on a formula for ending their estrangement.  Last month, an Israeli official revealed that the two sides had agreed on the outline of a deal.  According to the preliminary accord, Israel would set up a compensation fund for the families of the Marmara victims; Ankara would drop all related legal claims against Israel and prevent a senior Hamas activist from operating out of Turkey; and talks would begin on a pipeline to supply Turkey with gas from Israel’s giant Leviathan offshore field.

Turkey imports most of its energy and Russia supplies over half of its gas. In the wake of Moscow’s imposition of wide-ranging sanctions against Turkey in November, in response to Turkey’s downing of a Russian fighter jet over the Syrian border, this dependence on Russian gas raised alarm bells in Ankara.  The economic boycott has so far not affected Moscow’s supply of gas to Turkey, but Russia has suspended the Turkish Stream pipeline project – which would have supplied Russian gas to Europe via Turkey, circumventing Ukraine.

A fear of Russia using gas as a means of exerting political pressure appears to have hastened Turkey’s efforts to diversify its pool of energy suppliers.  Turkey has signed a Liquefied Natural Gas deal with Qatar; pledged to speed up work on the Trans-Anatolian pipeline delivering gas from Azerbaijan; and is set to receive Kurdistan Regional Government gas exports by the end of the year.  But it’s the prospect of an energy deal with Israel that has generated the most headlines in Turkey and Israel.

The news of a draft reconciliation deal came on 18th December 2015, a day after Netanyahu gave final approval for the long-delayed development of the Eastern Mediterranean Leviathan gas field, which could turn Israel into a major regional energy player.  Turkish firms and their Israeli counterparts have in the past held talks about a pipeline between Israel and Turkey, but little headway was made because of the two countries’ estrangement.

Israel had looked to Egypt as a major export market for Leviathan.  But this option is now in doubt because Cairo broke off talks over gas imports after international arbitrators ordered two Egyptian companies to compensate Israel in a long-running energy supply dispute.  While Israel is keen to resolve the disagreement, it is also looking to keep its options open by acquiring another big regional gas customer.

The thaw in relations between the two countries also appears to be driven by Turkey’s increasing isolation in the Middle East.  It fell out with Egypt following the ousting of President Mohamed Morsi in 2013 and relations with Iran and Iraq have come under strain.  Baghdad is angry with Ankara over the deployment of Turkish troops in northern Iraq, while Tehran has been critical of Ankara’s support for Syrian rebel groups.  Mending fences with Israel would provide Turkey with a powerful regional ally and improve ties with the US, as it contends with blowback from its intervention in Syria.

Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently summed up the two countries’ convergence of interests, saying: “Israel is in great need of a country like Turkey in the region.  We must accept the fact that we also have need of Israel.”  Last week, the leading Turkish newspaper, Hurriyet, quoted a senior Ankara official saying that relations between Turkey and Israel would be restored soon, as progress had been made on a number of issues.  But the report was unclear about the stratus of a long-standing Turkish condition for a rapprochement: the lifting of the Gaza blockade.  This could prove to be a big obstacle in negotiations, as Israel regards the embargo as vital for national security.

According to the Hurriyet article, Turkey wants to be able to deliver aid to Gaza and act as a channel for other countries to do the same.  Other reports in the Turkish media have suggested that Israel may be prepared to ease the blockade.  There has been no official word from Israel on this issue. Any sign of Israel’s flexibility on the issue would represent a significant breakthrough.  Having come so far, neither Israel nor Turkey would want to see their reconciliation efforts flounder, but the blockade question still remains a major stumbling block.